Friday, December 19, 2008
Friday, December 5, 2008
Forecasting the Future
Wouldn't it be nice to know what the future holds? Of course, predicting exactly what is going to happen in the future is impossible. While we cannot predict the future, we can forecast the future. To do this requires that we understand where we are now and where we have come from.
The past helps explain the future. To forecast the future, it is important to look backward, follow a trend to the present and make logical predictions about what is going to happen. I can say with near certainty that in ten years, we will not be flying around in cars. But what I can say is that in ten years, hybrid automobiles with embedded "online" communication systems will probably be common. GPS devices will "collect" better information about road and traffic conditions and will be "smarter" and we will be much safer because of it.
Social networks will include our health information (because we want it to, not because it is mandated), handheld devices will "recognize" people and places and give us more information, and for those who allow themselves to be "open" to their trusted network, where they are and what they are doing will be even more accessible. Of course, computers will be faster, televisions thinner, clearer and larger, and as a society we will be "greener" and hopefully too, more healthy.
Anticipating the future is important to help determine those things we need to be doing now, in particular as professional associations. If we are not looking forward to the future, we risk becomming less relevant to our members. A grassroots organization can literally pop up over night and if it better able to serve your member's needs, there is a risk you could lose your marketshare.
I am a big fan of the Institute for the Future, an independent nonprofit research group which works with organization to help them make better, more informed decision about the future. I heard IFTF Distinguished Fellow Bob Johansen speak about his book Get There Early last summer and his ideas are profound.
During the next year, I hope to gain a better understanding of where we are headed and maybe even be able to forecast what the association world might look like in the year 2020.
The past helps explain the future. To forecast the future, it is important to look backward, follow a trend to the present and make logical predictions about what is going to happen. I can say with near certainty that in ten years, we will not be flying around in cars. But what I can say is that in ten years, hybrid automobiles with embedded "online" communication systems will probably be common. GPS devices will "collect" better information about road and traffic conditions and will be "smarter" and we will be much safer because of it.
Social networks will include our health information (because we want it to, not because it is mandated), handheld devices will "recognize" people and places and give us more information, and for those who allow themselves to be "open" to their trusted network, where they are and what they are doing will be even more accessible. Of course, computers will be faster, televisions thinner, clearer and larger, and as a society we will be "greener" and hopefully too, more healthy.
Anticipating the future is important to help determine those things we need to be doing now, in particular as professional associations. If we are not looking forward to the future, we risk becomming less relevant to our members. A grassroots organization can literally pop up over night and if it better able to serve your member's needs, there is a risk you could lose your marketshare.
I am a big fan of the Institute for the Future, an independent nonprofit research group which works with organization to help them make better, more informed decision about the future. I heard IFTF Distinguished Fellow Bob Johansen speak about his book Get There Early last summer and his ideas are profound.
During the next year, I hope to gain a better understanding of where we are headed and maybe even be able to forecast what the association world might look like in the year 2020.
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